בתשובה לAMR, 12/06/04 4:45
The finger pointing game 225492
כמה הערות בקשר לתגובה שלך:

1. חלק חשוב מתפקידם של מומחי אמ"ן הוא לפרש את הפרטים שידועים להם. מי שמסתמך על הערכות צריך לקחת בחשבון שאילו הערכות, ושהן יכולות להיות שגויות. אולם אין לו תמיד את הידע והזמן לפרש בעצמו את הנתונים.

2. עקיבא אלדר כתב מאמר פרשנות. מאמר פרשנות מעצם ההגדרה לא כולל רק עובדות, אלא גם פרשנות לעובדות. בדרך־כלל מקווים שאם למישהו יש היכרות מספיק טובה עם תחומים מסויימים הוא יוכל לעזור לאחרים להבין אותם. גם אתה צריך להתייחס לדעות המובעות במאמרים כדעות הכותבים.

3. לא ברור לי למה אתה מתכוון ב"ימיהם החשוכים של הקומוניסטים"? אתה מתכוון לזמן שלטונם של הקומוניסטים הידועים בגין ושרון? או שמא אתה מתכחש לטענותיו של עמוס גלעד לגבי הפגיעה החמורה שנגרמה לו שם?
The finger pointing game 225626
To demonstrate the irony behind the so called “Estimation” and “Opinions” I will bring the statistics for help demonstrating my points.

Let’s take an ordinary people like me or (Assuming) you for instance.

As newspaper readers you can and would expect us to estimate situations based on a plain and regular reading and be correct in roughly 50% of the cases. That usually the situation, most avid newspaper readers are able to estimate events and occurrences in pretty much 50% accuracy.

So what makes Journalists and intelligent services being out of track that much and publish that many wrong estimations is yet to be explained to the root cause of it.

Actually our intelligence services are not that far away of the CIA and other such services. Only a few weeks ago it was published (I can not recall now where) that the Americans are having a serious second thought in the need and the value of spending that much hundreds of billions of dollars on those services that many average newspaper readers are actually able to be more precise and predict in greater accuracy strategic global moves then those dollar hungry services.

Having said that, it is obvious that there is no replacement to the tactical, sometime real time intelligence that those intelligence agencies are able and have to bring forward, those kind of intelligence that news papers, though may be excelled on strategic events’ predictions, would fail miserably on those tactics intelligence collection.

Now, about those Journalists and their so called “Opinions”. Well, I have no problem with a journalist that is presenting himself as belong to a specific political stream and he is then expresses his opinion accordingly leaving the choice with me the reader by providing me with enough data to make an intelligent (hopefully) decision.
I have real problem with a (The) journalist that is pretending to be balanced and open minded while his inclination towards a specific political stream is obvious and revealed from any line (and in between the lines) of his article. Shell we call it dishonesty perhaps?
That is not an “Honest Opinion” that is an attempt to lure and push readers towards his particular political inclination while coating that with the syrup (honey trap) of objectivity, that is a phony way to deceive people’s minds.
Unfortunately too many of our journalists are taking this rout trusting the foggy mind of their readers not to notice the masking text surrounding their articles that hiding their real intentions. A careful (not scientific) observation may hint to the fact that they are successful in their plot on about third of our population. Pity ha?

The soviets, during their darkest times (well, actually all their times were darkest, right?) used to tackle political opponents by accusing them in all sort of mental diseases and by that brushing (a gentle word for elimination) them out of the way.
Eldar’s insistence on recalling the Amos Gilad’s detailed health situation is more then just coincidental, it is brought up to demote Giad’s ability to come up with any rational prediction and estimation. It is wicked way to brush aside an opponent, right?

The finger pointing game 225727
תגובה זו הכילה את אחד העיוותים הגדולים ביותר בהם אי פעם נתקלתי למונח ''סטטיסטיקה''. ברכותיי.
The finger pointing game 225911
Everybody can throw a stone to the river.

Would you mind pick up your stone and explain how come?

Small hint # 1: read carefully the whole posing….

Small hint # two: Do not take one paragraph out of the whole posting’s context

The finger pointing game 225920
האם תואיל בטובך לכתוב רק על איזו סטטיסטיקה הסתמכת כדי לבסס את דבריך?

אתה נוטה לשכוח שאתה מתייחס לתחזיות מוצלחות של מומחים כמובנות מאליהן, ומתייחס רק לתחזיות הלא מוצלחות שלהם.

כמוכן: העבודה של אנשי אמ"ן דורשת מהם לספק תחזיות אמינות. העבודה של העיתונאי לא דורשת ממנו להתנתק לחלוטין מדעותיו הפוליטיות.
The finger pointing game 225930
Please read my respons to the "Viewer from the side"

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